Dip in Duck Numbers Comes as No Surprise

Memphis, TN, July 12, 2002

- The latest numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) confirm what most duck hunters and waterfowl experts suspected: Breeding duck numbers are down this year. In its annual report on breeding ducks and spring habitat conditions, the FWS estimates that total breeding duck populations fell 14 percent from a year ago, to 31.2 million birds. Experts are pointing to dry conditions and a late spring in key breeding areas as the cause of this decline.

"Overall, the numbers in this report are right in line with what our own field staff have observed," says Ducks Unlimited's Chief Biologist, Bruce Batt. "In general, habitat conditions are very poor, most species populations are down, and production is expected to be quite low in the west and the north."

Despite reduced populations, Batt points out that, "experienced hunters have learned that the most compelling factor determining hunting success is the weather, as was so dramatically demonstrated last year. Most will hope that the cold, wet spring will be mirrored this fall and winter to bring the birds back into traditional wintering locations where the annual hunting traditions can be renewed with family and friends." Dr. Scott Yaich, DU's Director of Conservation Planning says, "It's likely that the seasons will be more conservative than last year, which most hunters anticipate when populations decline." Ducks Unlimited does not participate in the regulations setting process.

Spring conditions were extremely dry across the north-central United States and south-central Canada, where the majority of North America's waterfowl breed. Total May pond counts were down 41 percent from last year and are 45 percent below the long-term average. That is the second lowest total pond count since 1974, and the lowest number ever recorded in Canada.

The water problem was exacerbated when winter-like conditions hit the prairies in May. Experts say the freezing temperatures halted migration for two weeks. "Cold weather and snow storms froze the limited run-off water that may have otherwise been available, and in the prairies and parklands, some nests were likely lost to the weather, but most birds were simply prevented from breeding," says Batt. "This, of course, would have the greatest effect on early-nesting species such as mallards, and pintail."

When conditions are poor on the prairies, waterfowl experts say ducks will migrate farther north to sit out the summer. Survey results indicate that many prairie-nesting species, such as mallards, shovelers, pintails, and blue-winged teal, flew over the prairies and parklands to the boreal forest, where wetland conditions are more stable. Ducks Unlimited has been working to conserve habitat in the boreal forest, and other northern habitats for this very reason.

"There may be limited production by some of these displaced birds, but based on the overall trends we should expect poor production and a reduced fall flight this year," says Batt. "However, these same factors set the stage for recovery when conditions improve. These birds will survive better this summer than they would if they had bred, and they will all be at least two years of age when they do breed. Past research has demonstrated that older birds are generally more successful nesters than yearlings."

In the traditional survey area, the breeding mallard population is an estimated 7.5 million birds, 5 percent fewer than last year, and 8 percent below the goals of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). Surveys of mallards conducted in the Great Lakes states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) indicated the population had increased from 780,000 in 2001 to 1 million this year. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the combined estimates of mallards from the traditional survey area and the Great Lakes states (8.5 million) to set hunting regulations through the Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) process.

Declining pintail and scaup populations continue to be of concern. According to this year's survey, the number of breeding pintails is the lowest ever estimated since surveys began in 1955. "We are deeply concerned about the extremely low status of this species," says Batt. "Pintails are the earliest spring migrants and would have been most impacted by the late snow and cold conditions. There are probably more birds outside of the survey area, as they are very drought-sensitive, and will leave prime prairie breeding areas shortly after arriving if moisture conditions are not adequate. Nevertheless, the situation with pintail populations is very serious. They have been below the NAWMP goal since 1976, and even if there are more pintails than estimated, production will be down this year due to the dry conditions."

Breeding scaup populations slipped an estimated 5 percent from last year, making this the second lowest scaup count on record. At 3.5 million birds, scaup are 44 percent below their NAWMP goal. "Ducks Unlimited is involved in a number of research projects to identify the problem with scaup populations to find methods to correct it," explains Batt.

Breeding blue-winged teal numbers, at 4.2 million, fell 27 percent from last year's estimate. The green-winged teal breeding population slid an estimated 7 percent from last year. Most other species experienced declines from last year's estimates, including gadwall (down 17 percent), redheads (down 21 percent), canvasbacks (down 16 percent), and northern shovelers (down 30 percent to 2.3 million). Only gadwall, green-winged teal, and shovelers remain above NAWMP goals.

On the bright side, Batt says the number of birds and prospects for reproduction are generally better in the eastern survey area, which is not part of the traditional survey area. At 4.4 million birds, the total breeding duck population in the eastern survey area is 32 percent higher than last year. Habitat conditions in the eastern areas of Canada and the United States were good to excellent in most regions. Late ice break-up caused poor early spring conditions in some locations, but overall, production is expected to be good in the east.

The cold, late spring conditions also persisted across most Arctic breeding areas where Arctic goose production will be reduced. These populations are generally in good shape, and most will not be seriously impacted by this one-year problem, although one population, the Atlantic Flyway Canada goose, had just recovered to levels where hunting seasons were being allowed again.